The ADP National Employment Report showed US private payrolls rising by 42,000 in October, beating economist expectations of 28,000.
September’s reading was revised upward to show 29,000 jobs lost.
Despite beating forecasts, the data confirm a subdued pace of job creation since October 2024.
Beyond the headline
As in September, small firms shed about 10,000 jobs and mid-sized companies lost 22,000, while large businesses added 74,000 positions.
By sector, the biggest gains came from trade, transportation, and utilities (+47,000) and education and health services (+25,000). Losses were concentrated in information technology (–17,000), professional services (–15,000), and other services (–14,000).
Pay rose 4.5% year on year, unchanged from September.
Significance for policymakers
Policymakers typically rely on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which covers both private and public employment. With NFP data suspended amid the US government shutdown, the ADP report is drawing elevated attention from policymakers and markets.
It is likely to become a key proxy for labour conditions as the FOMC assesses the economy without NFP, job openings, or jobless claims data.
The ADP Employment Report offers an independent view of the private sector, based on anonymised payroll data from 26mn employees. In contrast, the NFP survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics includes government employment, giving it a broader scope.
Impact of immigration
The release also comes amid a tighter US immigration policy. The Congressional Budget Office has cut its forecast for net immigration from 2mn at the start of the year to 400,000 by September.
After the latest FOMC decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the slowdown reflected both demand and supply factors: “This speedy decline in both supply and demand has certainly gotten everyone’s attention.” He later added, “If you’re looking at why employment is doing what it’s doing, that’s much more about the change in immigration.”
Significance for crypto
A stronger-than-expected jobs report may reinforce the hawkish wing of the FOMC, favouring a pause after its recent 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.00–4.25%. That would imply tighter liquidity conditions and reduced flows into riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
