Global markets are trading cautiously, with crypto and other risk assets consolidating as investors position themselves ahead of Tuesday’s US non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Markets Brace for US Jobs Data as Bitcoin Shows Weakness for a Fourth Straight Day
15 December 2025 - 20:56 CET
By Giles Broom
The jobs data released at 13:30UTC provide a key input into Federal Reserve rate expectations after the US government shut down for the first 43 days of Q4, wreaking havoc with economic statistics.
Bitcoin declined for a fourth straight day on Monday, trading a little above $86,000 at 19:31UTC, while total crypto market capitalization stood close to $2.9tn, leaving the market heading for a loss in 2025. Sentiment remains subdued, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 24, leaning heavily towards the risk-off side of the pendulum.
With no October unemployment rate being disclosed, the November report is expected to carry added weight in shaping near-term monetary policy expectations.
Subdued jobs growthThe BLS had previously reported an unemployment rate of 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August, the worst level since October 2021. Nonfarm payroll growth for November is expected at 40,000, down from 119,000 in September, while the unemployment rate may remain unchanged at 4.4%, according to consensus estimates published by Trading Economics.
Other indicators have been mixed. US retail sales rose 0.2% month on month in September and are expected to remain unchanged in November, while S&P Global flash PMI data continued to signal economic expansion at a subdued pace.
Policy outlook
Labour market conditions remain central to policy after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75% on 10 December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 78% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the 28 January 2026 meeting, with a 22% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.
Quizzed about jobs by journalists last week, Chair Jerome Powell alluded to information gathered from a network of contacts in the US economy through 12 reserve banks and played down suggestions that AI was already responsible for the cooling labour market, as well as referencing official government statistics.
“Available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability and firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline,” Powell said, according to the Fed's transcript of the rate decision press conference.
