Gold and Bitcoin have both set new records this week, extending sharp year-to-date gains as investors reassess traditional havens. Spot gold pushed near $3,990 an ounce while Bitcoin briefly traded above $126,000.
In a new research report, Deutsche Bank argues that Bitcoin could find itself alongside gold on central bank balance sheets by 2030, citing deeper liquidity, maturing regulation, and declining volatility as the market scales. The bank frames Bitcoin as a complementary hedge rather than a replacement for the dollar.
The discussion of gold and Bitcoin’s spots as the future preferred safe haven assets has gained traction as investors around the world begin to question the dollar’s position as a leading asset on central banks’ balance sheets.
“We find that both assets will likely feature on central bank balance sheets by 2030,” the report stated. “As Bitcoin’s liquidity deepens and regulation matures, Bitcoin is emerging as a more legitimized global asset class.”
With the US finding itself in a government shutdown and tariff war, the world has begun to wonder if the greenback should remain the world’s first choice of safe haven asset, held by banks, traders, and portfolios managers as a safe, highly-liquid store of value. The dollar index (DXY) – a measure of the US dollar’s strength relative to other major currencies – has slid over 9 percent since the beginning of the year.
The report pointed to the dollar’s slipping share in global reserves since the beginning of the century, falling from 60 to 41 percent, while gold’s share has risen significantly.
The bank highlighted some of Bitcoin’s key features as drivers for its candidature in bank reserves, namely the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply, decentralization, portability and accessibility, liquidity, low correlation with traditional asset classes, and psychological momentum.
Bitcoin and the precious metal have correlations of 10–12 percent with the most common US equity indices and negative correlations with the dollar index (DXY).
Bitcoin has struggled to gain a reputation as a “strategic asset,” mainly due to its volatility compared with other assets (such as major currencies, bonds, commodities, and US equities). However, the largest cryptocurrency’s movement has become less erratic: the Deribit Bitcoin Volatility Index has dropped from 60 in the beginning of the year to 39 on Tuesday.
Corporate adoption is booming. Roughly 200 publicly listed companies and over 60 private companies have initiated Bitcoin treasury strategies, led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). Together, the companies hold roughly 1.3 million bitcoins (worth approximately $165 billion), according to Bitcointreasuries.net – over 6 percent of the total supply.
While some governments already own Bitcoin for various reasons, no central bank has yet adopted Bitcoin as a strategic asset on their balance sheets.
“The case for Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset us strengthening,” the report stated.
