Bitcoin 'Conviction' Buyers Near 4mn BTC in Biggest Surge Since COVID Crash

These "conviction buyers" – or investors who believe in the long-term value of an asset – now hold nearly 4mn BTC, marking a 300% increase since the end of 2025, according to Bitfinex data released on 13 May. 

The exchange said the accumulation wave is the largest recorded over a two-quarter period since March 2020. Similar spikes have previously appeared in 2023 and during the 2015-2016 market recovery. 

The amount of BTC held by conviction buyers now represents a significant share of Bitcoin’s roughly 20mn circulating supply. Around 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, which leaves fewer than 1mn coins left to enter circulation.

Bitcoin traded at around $79,225 as of 20:00UTC, giving it a market capitalization of $1.58tn, while 24-hour trading volume stands near $43.8bn, according to CoinGecko. The price remains far below its October 2025 peak of roughly $124,000.

A shift in the liquidity landscape

Analysts say when more Bitcoin moves into long-term wallets that rarely sell, it reduces the amount of BTC available for trading on exchanges. And if demand keeps rising while fewer coins are available, prices could move more sharply.

"The fact that conviction buyers now control close to 4mn BTC says a lot about where the BTC ecosystem is heading," Ryan Kirkley, CEO of GSX, an institutional blockchain network, told Sandmark. "As the degen crypto demand for BTC falls off and long term whales sell, ETFs and large allocators are moving Bitcoin into long-term holdings and treating it as part of broader treasury and reserve strategies against US dollar risk."

Kirkley added that a rapid accumulation over such a short time frame changes the liquidity landscape and how the market reacts to demand. 

"As more BTC moves off exchanges and into long-term custody, supply naturally gets tighter and price swings larger," he said. "If demand keeps picking up alongside that trend, price moves could become much sharper simply because there’s less liquid BTC available." 

Kirkley also noted that this shift toward long-term institutional ownership makes the infrastructure behind digital assets even more important – especially as the industry needs to prepare to "help offset quantum and AI risks to Bitcoin."

Eneko Knorr, CEO of decentralized finance project Stabolut, said that larger, institutional investors are "clearly treating the recent market plateau as a rare buying opportunity."

However, he noted that this ongoing drain on liquid supply sets the stage for a "severe supply shock," where even a sudden increase of new demand will "likely trigger explosive upward price volatility."

It's not just whales

Jonathan Sexton, COO of Unchained, a Bitcoin financial services firm, told Sandmark the trend likely reflects a mix of retail self-custody habits and growing institutional allocation strategies.

"Despite the proliferation of exchanges, the majority of Bitcoin holders still prefer self-custody, and that preference has grown steadily," Sexton said. "Some of what we're seeing is price-driven holding, some are institutional players building positions quietly through a drawdown, and some reflects what's happening in long-term accounts, IRAs, trusts, estate plans, where allocation is becoming normalized."

Sexton added that traditional financial firms have also played a role in driving long-term accumulation.

"Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both gave their advisors the green light to recommend Bitcoin in client portfolios last year," Sexton said. "Most are landing on 5-10%. That guidance showing up in mainstream financial planning has real downstream effects on where coins end up and how long they stay there."