A repricing of Japanese risk set the tone for global markets overnight, pulling crypto into a macro-driven sell-off rather than a sentiment-led move. The Nikkei plunged as much as 2.1% in just three hours, a move that immediately bled into digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Spot-Led Floor Emerges as Derivatives Flush Out
1 December 2025 - 18:30 CET
The shock was twofold: renewed regulatory overhang on stablecoins from the PBoC and Japanese government bond yields surging to 2008 highs. The latter crushed USD/JPY by 0.8% from the session open.
Liquidity vacuum
A sustained yield spike forces JPY-funded portfolios to pull back from foreign assets. Since repayment in a rising yen tightens the entire carry structure, crypto markets absorbed the shock first.
The timing amplified the move. Sunday evenings have consistently produced thin liquidity pockets this year, acting as accelerants for significant reversals. Market depth was limited precisely when stress landed, erasing last week’s gains and wiping out traders who had rebuilt leveraged long positions into the recovery bounce.
Spot-led regime
A clear divergence has emerged between the Bitcoin price and Open Interest (OI). While price is stabilizing, OI continues to compress.
With leverage bleeding out and funding rates resetting to flat or slightly negative, the market is shifting from a derivatives-driven regime back to a spot-dominated one. This is the first time in weeks that BTC has shown a genuine floor forming on organic spot demand, signaling that fresh capital is entering to absorb the selling pressure.
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(Source: Coin Metrics)
The $85k line
Onchain flows reinforce this rotation. Glassnode’s cost-basis heatmaps show intense spot accumulation during the pullback, with a new cluster forming around $85,000.
Approximately 856,253 BTC ($72.5bn) have been acquired between $84,000 and $85,000, making it the densest zone in the entire UTXO (an unspent transaction output that remains after a cryptocurrency transaction) distribution. This creates a meaningful structural support level, as these new holders have a clear cost basis to defend.
This view is supported by the 3-month Bitcoin Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). The metric, which gauges net buying or selling pressure, has returned to neutrality after being seller-dominated since late August.
The Coinbase Premium Index adds another layer of confirmation, flashing green for the first time this month, according to Coinglass data. This signals that US spot demand is returning after weeks of acting as net supply.
ETF rotation
The November drawdown also reflected active supply rotation from older cohorts to new entrants. Over the past two weeks, the delta in Bitcoin active supply shows a massive spike in short-term holders:
< 1 month cohort: +49.28%
6-12 months cohort: –12.4%
1–2 years cohort: –10.3%
The cohorts with the most significant outflows align closely with coins accumulated during the initial spot ETF window. Early ETF entrants are locking in profits while late-cycle entrants are exiting near break-even.
Crucially, the average ETF holder's cost basis sits near $83,400. With the 75th percentile near $104,000, a significant portion of recent institutional capital remains under pressure, capping immediate upside until the overhang clears.
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(Source: Farside, Coin Metrics)
