Bitcoin has kicked off the year with intent, climbing 6.18% from the opening day and testing higher ground, briefly trading as high as $93,312 overnight on 4-5 Jan.
Bitcoin Rides New Year Surge Amid Liquidity Headwinds
5 January 2026 - 17:42 CET
Recent geopolitical headlines in Venezuela have so far failed to materially disrupt the broader crypto market, with prices showing relative resilience.
However, the price is once again stalling just below the $94,000 resistance, a level that has repeatedly capped upside attempts since momentum broke down in mid-November.
Still, early signs of risk appetite are slowly returning. Last week saw $459m in net inflows, following a flat start to the week before a sharp $471.3mn print on 2 Jan, according to Farside data.
Notably, weekly inflows of this magnitude were last observed in late October, shortly before a prolonged drawdown period during which $4.56bn exited spot ETF vehicles across November and December.
The start of the year appears more constructive, though liquidity conditions may still prove a headwind as the rally attempts to transition into a sustained upward trend.
Rebuilding liquidity meets overhead supply
Order book liquidity captures all limit orders close to the current price, providing a near-term view of where immediate supply and demand are positioned.
Since the beginning of the year, the order book liquidity structure across derivatives venues has seen only limited deterioration, with delta shifting marginally negative after the year-end period of thin but supportive liquidity.
Yet the driver of that shift matters.
The change is not the result of bids being pulled, but rather of sell-side liquidity expanding sharply as the price broke above $93,000, close to the upper bound of the $84,000–$94,000 trading range that has contained the price for nearly two months.
According to Coinglass data, futures ask liquidity – the active supply being layered above the market - surged from $257.5mn to $451.0mn from 1 Jan, while bid liquidity barely budged. as of 14:00 UTC. Liquidity remains present, but it is increasingly skewed toward the sell side.
Over the same period, spot markets tell a similar, but relatively more pronounced story. Spot order book liquidity delta has flipped decisively negative, reaching, $62.4m, the most significant imbalance observed since 30 Sep, coinciding with the local market top as momentum has stalled since then.
Bid liquidity - the active demand being layered below the market - has compressed materially from $104.5mn to $74.8mn, while ask liquidity has expanded aggressively from $57.5mn to $137.2mn.
Chart
(Source: CoinGlass)
In other words, sellers are crowding the top of the range as negative order book delta reflects more sell orders than buy orders resting, a structure that historically tends to emerge around local highs.
Without fresh marginal buyers, this imbalance reinforces resistance and increases the likelihood that rallies are met with absorption rather than follow-through.
Liquidation clusters as short-term magnets
A large share of upside liquidity has already been cleared, with price moving through dense liquidation clusters rather than stalling below them.
In environments lacking strong fundamental catalysts, these liquidation pockets often act as short-term magnets, drawing price toward areas where forced flow is concentrated.
High liquidity enables larger participants to execute size efficiently. But once those liquidation-driven orders are absorbed or unwound, price typically loses momentum, as the marginal flow that powered the move fades.
Chart
(Source: CoinGlass)
The overnight increase from $91,000 to $93,000 triggered approximately $270.5m in liquidations according to CoinGlass data, generating sufficient force to push through multiple layers of overhead leverage. That said, meaningful liquidity remains clustered around $94,000, representing the next key test.
A clean break through this level would likely require renewed participation, but could reopen the path toward six-figure territory.
Failing that, the same liquidity dynamics risk flipping $94,000 back into resistance, leaving price vulnerable to rotation lower, with the next major concentration of leverage now sitting closer to the $88,000 zone.
