Prediction markets have grown into a $20bn-a-month trading ecosystem. A surge in new users and a sharp shift away from crypto speculation toward geopolitical and macroeconomic contracts are driving the expansion, according to blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs.
Prediction Markets Hit $20bn Monthly Volume as Geopolitics Overtakes Crypto
27 March 2026 - 17:00 CET
By Matt Neill
Monthly transaction volume across the sector rose from $1.2bn in early 2025 to more than $20bn in January 2026. More than 800,000 unique wallets are now active each month, climbing to about 840,000 in the six months to February, the report said.
Geopolitics and macro largest markets
The composition of demand has changed materially. While crypto contracts remain active, the largest markets are now tied to war, elections, central banks and political leadership.
Iran-related contracts became a major driver in early 2026. Polymarket’s markets tied to a potential US strike on Iran attracted more than $252mn in February across date-based sub-markets, while a contract on whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave power by 28 Feb saw one of the sharpest volume spikes on record. This fits with a broader trend previously identified of coordinated wallet clusters placing concentrated bets on Iranian regime collapse scenarios.
User base expands rapidly
Growth is not coming only from larger bets by existing traders. Wallet participation has more than tripled over the past year. The most active cohort consists of traders with between 11 and 1,000 lifetime fills, while high-frequency market makers also account for a large share of activity. Casual one-time users represent only a small portion of overall trading.
TRM also highlighted patterns around the US airstrikes on Iran, where four wallets turned roughly $40,000 into $872,000, sharing funding routes and exit behaviour that raised questions about coordination. The report comes as Polymarket and Kalshi have introduced new insider trading restrictions and market integrity measures amid heightened scrutiny.
