Cboe Global Markets has introduced binary options tied to the Mini-S&P 500 Index, bringing prediction-market mechanics into one of the most established parts of US market infrastructure, the company said in a statement on 23 Jun.
The contracts are the first products in Cboe Predicts, a new suite that lets traders take yes-or-no positions on financial market outcomes. The initial products, listed under XSPBW and XSPBX, are available through Interactive Brokers, with Charles Schwab expected to add access in the coming months.
The move places Cboe, one of the world's largest options exchange operators, directly into a market that has grown rapidly through platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Cboe's version applies the format to a regulated index-options product rather than politics, sport or broader events.
Regulated route into prediction markets
The contracts are linked to XSP, a Mini-S&P 500 Index product that tracks one-tenth of the S&P 500. A yes contract pays $100 if the index settles at or above a specified level. A no contract pays $100 if it settles below that level.
That fixed payout gives traders a defined-risk structure. It also makes the product easier to understand than some traditional options strategies, while still using the listed-options framework.
Cboe's regulatory structure is central to the product. The contracts trade on Cboe Options Exchange and are cleared through the Options Clearing Corporation, the main US clearing house for listed options. That places them inside established market surveillance, margin and settlement systems.
"Following the success of SPX 0DTE options, we have seen continued customer demand for shorter-dated, outcome-based trading, creating a natural extension for Cboe to introduce XSP binary options," said JJ Kinahan, head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe. "With Cboe Predicts, we are expanding that choice by offering simple 'yes-or-no' payout event contracts."
Wall Street enters the race
Cboe's entry marks a shift for prediction markets. The sector has been led by crypto-native or event-contract platforms, which have attracted retail users and institutional traders but also faced regulatory disputes.
Kalshi has expanded from event contracts into financial products, while Polymarket has built large crypto-linked markets across politics, sport and macro events. The format has moved well beyond a niche product. Cboe is taking a narrower route: its first contracts focus on financial index outcomes and are distributed through familiar brokerage channels.
The rollout suggests prediction markets may split into two models: broader event trading with legal uncertainty, and regulated financial-outcome trading embedded in exchanges, brokers and clearinghouses.
