With about 1.4 billion souls baptized around the world, the election of a new head of the Catholic Church has been a major social event for 750 years. The conclave that ensues is followed very closely by media from all corners of the world. This time around, another group was monitoring proceedings in the papal Conclave: online bettors and gamblers.
$USDC used for papal wagers
On Polymarket, more than $30 million were placed on who would be the successor to Pope Francis. Polymarket is the world’s largest predictions market, where users use $USDC to make “yes or no” bets on topics of all sorts: sporting events, global geopolitics, crypto price changes, or even the number of tweets Elon Musk sends over a given time period. Another platform, Kalshi, said it took more than $10 million from the contest.
Crypto betting markets were given notable recognition after the 2024 US presidential election, with many bettors correctly predicting Donald Trump to win. With bets in the billions, these sites jumped to the forefront of many to use as market indicators for events.
After Polymarket correctly predicted Mark Carney to become the next Prime Minister of Canada, CEO Shayne Coplan stated that it was “the most accurate source of information on the internet.” But in this papal popularity contest, bettors were mostly wrong.
Most bets were wrong!
With less than 2% odds across multiple sites, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost (now Pope Leo XIV), was an underdog. The bettors’ favourites were Cardinal Pietro Parolin and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who combined had around 45% in implied odds, and each drew in more than $2 million in bets, highlighting that people using such sites are there to bet, not to invest..
