Bitcoin Bottom Remains Elusive As Onchain Data Stalls

From its all-time high, the drawdown exceeds 50%, a magnitude that naturally revives a familiar question for investors. Has Bitcoin already bottomed, or is this another pause inside a broader reset?

To answer that properly, it helps to step away from price narratives and return to classical onchain indicators, the same tools that have historically framed Bitcoin’s major bear-market lows. These indicators are not timing tools. Their value lies in identifying stress, valuation compression and capitulation, conditions that tend to surround durable bottoms.

The anatomy of a cycle low

Across prior major cycle lows in 2018, March 2020 and November 2022, a consistent valuation pattern appears. MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the aggregate cost basis of all coins, fell below 1.0 in each case. This means Bitcoin traded beneath the level where the average holder acquired their supply. At the same time, NUPL, which measures the balance of unrealised profits versus losses across the network, turned negative, signalling broad-based holder losses.

In this dataset, Bitcoin has not formed a durable macro bottom without both conditions being met.

The current state of play

As of early February, Bitcoin’s MVRV sits near 1.27, while NUPL remains positive around +0.22. Both readings are well above prior bottom regimes. The average holder is still in profit, and aggregate unrealised losses have not materialised at scale.

Source: Coinmetrics

Rather than full capitulation, the data points to valuation compression. Historically, Bitcoin has often spent extended periods with MVRV between roughly 1.2 and 1.4 while price continued to trend lower or revisit prior lows.

Stress signals from the mines

Miner behaviour provides another perspective. Hash Ribbons, which track short and long term moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate, are commonly used to identify periods of miner capitulation and recovery. At present, miner capitulation is active and has persisted for over a month, confirming real economic stress in the mining sector.

However, past bottoms did not form during ongoing capitulation. They occurred after hash rate trends stabilised and miners began to recover. Current recovery signals remain unconfirmed, suggesting this phase is still incomplete.

Value is not timing

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to onchain transaction activity, is currently in its oversold regime. The NVT signal is near 137, well below its current oversold threshold around 176. This condition has historically coincided with periods of network undervaluation. It reflects improving relative value and weaker speculative excess.

That said, NVT has historically acted as a value signal, not a timing tool. In multiple cycles, NVT remained oversold for extended periods while Bitcoin prices continued to decline before ultimately bottoming.

The bottom line

Taken together, classical onchain indicators paint a consistent picture. Bitcoin is in a stress and valuation reset phase, but the conditions that historically defined confirmed macro bottoms are not yet in place. Miner stress is ongoing, valuation has compressed and network metrics are improving, yet broad capitulation has not occurred. Based on classical onchain indicators alone, there is insufficient evidence to conclude that Bitcoin has bottomed. History suggests patience is still warranted until stress gives way to stabilisation.