Recap
- Markets ticked up on Monday, led by Asian equities and a modest rebound in crypto assets, having ended the prior week in "risk-off" mode. US political gridlock and tariff rhetoric unsettled sentiment across crypto and commodities.
- Bitcoin dipped as low as $103,517 on Friday, its lowest point since June, as it continues to face headwinds amid Trump’s tariff threats and US economic uncertainty.
- ETFs (exchange traded funds) of the largest cryptocurrency saw $531mn in net outflows on Thursday, their worst single day since August, led by the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.
- Gold advanced to a new all-time high of $4,380 on Friday, for a 67% year-to-date gain, putting this year on track to be gold’s best performance in nearly half a century.
- The Fear and Greed Index dropped as low as 25 (Fear) on Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap, the lowest since Trump’s April tariff announcement sparked pandemonium. Similarly, the VIX, a widely used measure of US stock volatility and recognized as Wall Street’s ‘fear index’, rose to 28.99, the highest print since April.
- The whale who made millions shorting the crash just 30 minutes before Trump’s posts opened about $500mn in new Bitcoin shorts early last week. The positions have since been closed.
Top Gainers
- ENA (Ethena) +17%
- TAO (Bittensor) +14%
- PAXG (PAX Gold) +5%
Top Losers
- SPX (SPX6900) -25%
- FET (Artificial Superintelligence Alliance) -24%
- ASTER (Aster) -19%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.68tn (-5.8% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 58.9% (vs 58.8% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 27/100 (vs 31 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 27/100 (vs 31 last week)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Monday 20 October
Economic data
- 02:00 China GDP, industrial production, retail sales for September: investors will be digesting the figures in light of the ongoing US-China tariff spat that could hamper bilateral trade.
Government
- Day 20 of the US government shutdown. Major economic reports, including employment figures and GDP, remain on hold until the shutdown is resolved. The impasse has reportedly delayed a wave of spot Solana and XRP ETF approvals that that were expected in the coming weeks.
Tuesday 21 October
Economic data
- 12:30 Canada Inflation Rate YoY: A softer print supports the BoC cut bias and risk appetite, while a hot print could push yields higher and weigh on crypto.
- 23:50 Japan Trade Balance: A wider deficit highlights weak external demand and yen pressure, while a surplus signals firmer exports and more BoJ patience.
Wednesday 22 October
Economic data
- 06:00 UK Inflation Rate YoY: A downside surprise strengthens BoE cut expectations, while a sticky print could keep yields elevated and risk appetite muted.
Thursday 23 October
Economic data
- 23:30 Japan Inflation Rate YoY: Cooling core inflation eases pressure on BoJ normalization, while an upside surprise revives rate-hike chatter and yen volatility.
Friday 24 October
Economic data
- 08:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMIs (Flash): PMIs steer growth expectations into month-end; misses typically hit cyclicals and high-beta assets first.
- 12:30 US CPI (MoM and YoY): After the BLS pushed its initial release date from 15 Oct due to the shutdown, CPI is the weeks’ key macro release. A soft print boosts odds of further easing and risk-on sentiment.
Saturday 25 October
Crypto event (token unlock)
- XPL (Plasma) Token Unlock: Unlock of 88.9mn tokens (~6.84% of circulating supply), worth roughly $38mn. Could introduce short-term selling pressure depending on distribution and market liquidity.
Sunday 26 October
Crypto event (conference)
- Money 20/20 USA (Oct 26–29, Las Vegas): Fintech’s largest US gathering. Expect payments, stablecoin, and tokenization headlines into midweek.
