World Cup Fuels Prediction Market Boom as Platforms Post Record Activity

DeFiLlama data show that Kalshi, a prediction market platform, generated about $1.81bn in trading volume during the week ended 14 Jun, the largest weekly total tracked by the data provider. Its notional volume currently stands at $19bn over the past 30 days, while open interest is currently at $990mn. 

Bloomberg also reported that Kalshi recorded a record $5.1bn in total trading volume during the first week of the FIFA World Cup 2026, and that its notional trading volume approached $18bn in May – meaning its current notional volume reached another all-time high.

Prediction markets are online exchanges where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events. This week, some of the most actively traded contracts focused on the FIFA World Cup, including whether Argentina would win its opening match and which country would lift the trophy. Other popular markets have centred on interest-rate decisions by the US Federal Reserve, the likelihood of a US recession and the outcome of major elections.

Increased activity

The latest figures point to a sharp increase in activity. Kalshi's monthly trading volume rose from about $5.4bn in April to over $6.1bn in May, according to DeFiLlama. At the same time, its notional trading volume has climbed to nearly $20bn over the past 30 days. 

More broadly, the trend is extending beyond just Kalshi, with trading volume across platforms crossing $8bn over the past week.   

Market leader Polymarket captured about $6bn in volume over the period, while competitors including Robinhood, DraftKings, ForecastEx and Crypto.com have all launched or expanded prediction offerings over the past few months to capture growing demand from traders. 

Broader reach

The surge suggests that prediction markets are attracting a wider audience. In the past, activity was largely driven by crypto traders and election bets, but major sporting events are now emerging as another major draw for users.