Stablecoins' Overlap with Payments Could Drive Volumes to $719tn by 2035: Chainalysis

The estimates are based on what the firm describes as "adjusted" transaction volume, a measure that filters out activity such as bot-driven transfers and focuses on payments, remittances and settlement. Chainalysis, a blockchain analytics company that tracks and analyzes cryptocurrency transactions, said this metric has grown at a 133% compound annual rate since 2023, reaching $28tn in 2025.  

Even without additional catalysts, the firm projects volumes could rise to $719tn by 2035. Under a more expansive scenario, which incorporates macroeconomic and adoption drivers, that figure could approach $1.5qd, the firm said.  

Structural drivers behind the projections 

Chainalysis points to two main factors that could influence adoption. One is a projected $80tn–$100tn transfer of wealth from older generations to Millennials and Gen Z over the coming decades, groups that have shown higher levels of engagement with crypto assets.  

"We estimate that this transition alone could add $508 trillion to annual stablecoin transaction volumes by 2035," the report said. 

The second is the potential expansion of stablecoin use at the point-of-sale. If merchant acceptance increases, stablecoins could shift from being a deliberate payment choice to a more embedded settlement mechanism, reducing the visibility of the underlying rails to end users.  

Merchant adoption alone could contribute an additional $232tn in annual transaction volume by 2035, Chainalysis said.

Increasing overlap with existing payment systems 

If current trends continue, stablecoin transaction volumes could reach levels comparable to those processed by Visa and Mastercard between 2031 and 2039, according to the report.  

This would bring stablecoins into more direct competition with established payment networks, particularly in cross-border transfers and business payments, where settlement speed and cost are key considerations. 

"Stablecoin-linked cards will compete directly with legacy payment infrastructure. For incumbents like Visa and Mastercard, this isn't a distant threat. It's a countdown," the report said. 

Institutional positioning and risks 

Large payments firms and fintechs have begun moving beyond pilots into concrete deals and infrastructure buildouts. In March, Mastercard agreed to acquire stablecoin infrastructure provider BVNK for up to $1.8bn, a move aimed at connecting blockchain-based payments with its global card network.  

Competitors are taking a similar approach. Visa has partnered with Bridge, a stablecoin infrastructure firm owned by payment services firm Stripe, to enable users to spend stablecoin balances through traditional card networks, initially targeting markets in Latin America.  

Stripe itself has been using its 2025 purchase of Bridge to expand further into the space.  Earlier this year, Bridge received conditional regulatory approval in the US to operate as a national trust bank. If fully approved, the entity would be able to offer custody, issuance and reserve management services for stablecoins within a regulated framework. 

In 2025, payments remained the largest revenue pool in financial services, generating about $2.5tn in revenue from roughly $2.0qd in global flows, according to McKinsey.