Stablecoin Growth Could Add $1tn of T-Bill Demand: StanChart

They still expect stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2tn by the end of 2028, which they estimate would add about $0.8tn to $1.0tn to Treasury bill demand from issuers holding bills as reserves.

GENIUS Act framework and demand estimates

The bank’s digital asset and interest rate analysts jointly highlighted in a 23 Feb research note that the stablecoin supply has stalled above $300bn in recent months as digital asset markets weakened and new stablecoin launches took time. The US GENIUS Act established a regulatory framework for fiat-pegged cryptocurrencies in July 2025, although the rules may not come into effect until next year.

It compared that with the estimated net new Treasury bill supply of about $1.3tn over the same period if bills’ share of outstanding US public debt remains constant, implying a potential shortfall in bill supply

These factors were flagged as cyclical rather than structural and the bank maintained its end-2028 forecast, projecting that stablecoin issuers would need more short-dated Treasuries to meet reserve and liquidity requirements.

Short maturities

According to the research, stablecoin-related demand was likely to be concentrated in very short maturities, given reserve requirements referenced in the GENIUS Act. If the Treasury uses those requirements to justify raising the share of bills in outstanding debt that could shift about $0.9tn of issuance from longer-dated bonds.

Under the current auction calendar, 30-year bond auctions may be suspended for the next three years, the analysts said.

"This should give Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent a justification to increase the share of T-bills within outstanding US debt," they noted. "Easing the potential shortage at the front end of the curve while reducing supply at the back end would likely lead to lower long-term yields."

Stablecoins eye structural adoption

Stablecoins have expanded beyond crypto trading use cases and now operate as one of the largest digital settlement networks globally. Total transaction volumes rose 72% in 2025 to a record $33tn, according to data from Artemis Analytics.

USDC accounted for $18.3tn of flows in 2025, while Tether’s USDT recorded $13.3tn. Although USDT remains larger by market capitalization, USDC has become dominant in transactional activity, particularly within decentralized finance markets where tokens are frequently recycled across lending and trading protocols.

Policy clarity has supported institutional adoption. The GENIUS Act established federal standards for issuance and reserves, encouraging banks and payment providers to integrate stablecoin rails for continuous settlement.