Gemini Challenges Polymarket with CFTC-Approved Prediction Market

Gemini has secured a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a prediction market for US customers, directly challenging the offshore dominance of Polymarket with a federally approved alternative.

The approval allows Gemini’s affiliate, Gemini Titan, to list binary event contracts on political, economic, and cultural outcomes. Unlike Polymarket, which restricts US users, the Gemini platform is fully regulated. This allows American traders to wager directly from their existing dollar balances.

Gemini (GEMI) shares rose in after-hours trading on the news as investors weighed the new revenue stream against a stock that has traded significantly below its September IPO price.

Event contracts to follow

The new license places Gemini Titan in the same regulatory tier as futures heavyweights like CME Group and ICE. Initial products will be simple "yes-or-no" contracts regarding election outcomes or Fed rate decisions. This is part of a broader shift by regulators to treat event contracts as financial instruments rather than gambling products.

Gemini has indicated this is the first step in a broader US derivatives strategy. The firm plans to seek approval for crypto futures and perpetual swaps that remain off-limits to US retail traders.

Regulatory tailwinds

The approval arrives amidst a flurry of activity from the CFTC. Acting Chair Caroline Pham has accelerated the agency’s "crypto sprint" in the final weeks of 2025 by launching a pilot program to accept Bitcoin and USDC as collateral for derivatives trading.

According to Bloomberg, Pham also announced the formation of a "CEO Innovation Council" on 10 Dec 2025. The group includes executives from Crypto.com, Kraken, and Gemini. The push aims to align CFTC rules with the newly passed GENIUS Act, which mandates clearer pathways for digital asset integration in regulated markets.