Crypto markets staged their sharpest recovery in weeks, with total capitalization climbing back above $4 trillion. Total value climbed as much as 12% since last Thursday, increasing even as the US government shutdown entered its third day.
Crypto Leaps 12% in 7 Days, Surpassing $4tn Despite US Shutdown
3 October 2025 - 08:40 CEST
Bitcoin, major coins advance
Bitcoin recovered from below $110,000 to trade near $120,000, rising about 11% in a week. Ethereum broke above $4,500, jumping 12–15%, while Solana hit $230 and XRP crossed $3.00 with weekly gains of 8–10%. The rebound underscores a rotation back into the largest and most liquid coins, as investors prioritize stability over smaller tokens.
Shutdown flips from risk to support
The shutdown began on 1 Oct after the US Congress failed to pass a budget. Federal agencies have closed, regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity and Futures Trading Commision CFTC are thinly staffed, and key data releases risk delays. Last week, hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve, weak jobs data, and shutdown fears weighed heavily on crypto. Now, traders seem to be observing that the dysfunction could force the Fed to slow tightening, turning a perceived threat into short-term support for digital assets.
Institutional activity adds fuel
Institutional flows are reinforcing the rebound. Coinglass data shows open interest in Bitcoin and Ether derivatives has climbed in recent days, signaling renewed participation from larger players. Traders also note that short-term Bitcoin options remain relatively cheap, pointing to expectations for sharper price swings ahead.
At the same time, open interest in Solana and XRP futures has crossed $1 billion across CME, Binance, and Bybit. The extension of demand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum highlights a broader institutional push into other large-cap assets, underscoring preparation for higher volatility across the market.
Speculative energy in smaller tokens
Speculative appetite has also resurfaced in niche corners of the market. Render (RENDER) gained 7% on more than $70 million in daily trading, while machine-learning tokens overall held a steady market value between $24–30 billion.
Risk-heavy altcoins are showing even bigger volume spikes. World Liberty Financial (WLFI) stayed flat near $0.21 but recorded $301 million in daily turnover. Short liquidations have also amplified the rally, with an estimated $300–400 million in bearish positions wiped out in recent sessions. The mix of forced liquidations, surging volumes, and new risk-taking shows speculative energy is firmly back in play.
Look ahead
With the shutdown unresolved, next week’s release of economic data such as the jobs report is uncertain. The Fed’s FOMC Minutes will be closely watched, alongside exchange-traded funds flows. Strong inflows could cement the rally; weak demand may expose fragility. The question is whether this rebound extends into a lasting Q4 trend or fades as a short-lived bounce.
Resilience under stress
The rebound highlights crypto’s resilience under political stress, with Bitcoin near $120,000, Ethereum above $4,500, Solana at $230, and XRP over $3.00. The shutdown hasn't dampened demand for now; whether it lasts depends on Washington’s deadlock and broader macro signals.
