Recap
- Crypto assets showed signs of recovery over the weekend after last week's sharp decline shaved about $200 billion from the global market cap. Weekly liquidations exceeded $5.7 billion, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and high leverage in derivatives trading.
- Recent PMI data from the UK, India, Germany, and Japan indicate a broad-based slowdown in manufacturing and services, fueling global recession worries and risk-off sentiment in markets.
- US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continued to advocate a cautious, data-driven approach to interest rate cuts, resisting pressure from some officials for faster action due to ongoing inflation concerns and the need to maintain economic stability.
- In a more positive development, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced plans to permit tokenized collateral, including stablecoins, in derivatives markets, aiming to modernize collateral management and integrate digital assets into traditional finance.
Top Gainers
- MYX (MYX Finance) +63%
- Plasma (XPL) +59%
- ASTER (Aster) +33%
Top Losers
- IP (Story) -32%
- PI (Pi) -24%
- 0G (0G) -22%
Market Metrics
- Total Market Cap: $3.87T (-3.8% vs last week)
- BTC Dominance: 57.8% (vs 57.2% last week)
- Fear and Greed Index: 34/100 (vs 48 last week)
- Alt Season Index: 68/100 (vs 61/100)
This week, we'll be monitoring (all times UTC):
Tuesday 30 September
Economic data
- 01:30 China NBS Manufacturing PMI Sept: A reading below expectations would signal continued weakness in China’s manufacturing sector, potentially dampening global risk appetite and pressuring crypto, while a stronger print could boost sentiment for risk assets by suggesting stabilization in Chinese growth.
- 14:00 US JOLTs Job Openings Aug: A significant drop in US job openings may stoke recession fears and weigh on risk assets, including crypto, whereas a robust figure would reinforce labour market resilience and support risk-on positioning.
Wednesday 1 October
Economic data
- 09:00 Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash Sept: An inflation print above forecasts could revive concerns about persistent price pressures, leading to risk-off moves in crypto and equities, while a downside surprise would support the case for rate cuts and likely lift risk assets.
- 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Sept: A weaker-than-expected ISM PMI would highlight ongoing US manufacturing softness, potentially dragging down risk sentiment and crypto, while a positive surprise could signal economic resilience and support a rebound in risk assets.
Crypto event (token unlock)
- SUI Token Unlock: Will release 57mn tokens (~1.6% of circulating supply), worth $182 million. Could introduce short-term selling pressure depending on recipient distribution and market liquidity.
Crypto event (conference)
- Token2049, Singapore: The event (1-2 Oct) is recognized as one of the world’s largest and most influential crypto conferences with headline speakers such as Binance CEO Richard Teng, Paolo Ardoino of Tether, and Donald Trump Jr. of World Liberty Financial. Come and say hi to the Sandmark team at our booth.
Thursday 2 October
Economic data
12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: following last week's positive data, which ran counter to growing concerns about the strength of the US labour market, a higher figure than the consensus estimate of 220,000 weekly claims would re-stoke those concerns. A lower figure would indicate that the immediate employment situation for Americans is better than expected. The focus will likely be on Friday's data.
Friday 3 October
Economic data
- 12:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate Sept: An uptick in the unemployment rate may fuel concerns about a slowing US economy, pressuring risk assets and crypto, while a stable or lower rate would reinforce the “soft-landing” narrative and support market confidence.
- 14:00 US ISM Services PMI Sept: A miss on the ISM Services PMI could signal broader economic weakness and weigh on risk sentiment, while a strong reading would suggest continued strength in the US services sector, likely benefiting crypto and other risk assets.
