US-listed Bitcoin and Ether ETFs experienced a sharp reversal in flows during the week beginning 2 Mar, as escalating military strikes between the US, Israel and Iran triggered a broader risk-off move across global markets and sent oil prices surging above $100 per barrel by the start of the following week.
Crypto ETF Flows Swing Sharply as Gulf Conflict Rattles Markets
9 March 2026 - 22:59 CET
By Matt Neill
Strong inflows turned into heavy redemptions as the conflict intensified and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was effectively halted for new traffic, amplifying volatility across commodities, equities and digital assets.
Markets digest conflict shock
Bitcoin ETFs had attracted substantial inflows at the start of the week despite rising geopolitical tensions. On 2 Mar, funds absorbed $458mn, led by $263mn into BlackRock’s IBIT and $95mn into Fidelity’s FBTC, according to data published by Farside Investors.
Demand remained resilient the following day, with 3 Mar bringing a further $225mn even as markets absorbed the first wave of missile exchanges across the Gulf. BlackRock again dominated flows with $322mn, offsetting outflows from Grayscale products for the broader sector.
Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern early in the week. They recorded $39mn in inflows on 2 Mar and $169mn on 4 Mar, with strong demand for BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity’s FETH products.
The early inflows suggested that investors initially treated digital assets as part of a broader liquidity trade rather than reacting directly to geopolitical stress.
Risk-off pivot triggers sharp outflows
The tone shifted abruptly on 5 Mar as hostilities escalated and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically. Oil prices surged, triggering a broader sell-off across risk assets.
Over Thursday 5 and Friday 6 Mar Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $577mn as spot prices retreated from highs of around $74,000 to settle at around $68,000.
Ethereum ETFs experienced an even sharper reversal relative to their size. After the midweek surge in demand, those products lost $174mn amid two day's of declines for the ETH token.
Institutional sentiment shift
The late-week withdrawals erased much of the earlier inflow momentum, highlighting how quickly institutional sentiment can shift when macro conditions deteriorate.
The volatile flow pattern reflects the unresolved debate over Bitcoin’s role in global portfolios. While some investors position it as a digital hedge against monetary instability, recent ETF flows suggest that, in the face of acute geopolitical shocks, it still trades largely as a risk asset.
