Coinbase Misses Analyst Estimates, Posts $666mn Loss in Q4 2025

Q4 EPS was a loss of $2.49 per share, versus $4.68 profit per share in the same quarter of 2024, falling short of analyst estimates of $1.00 profit per share. Overall the company lost $666.7mn in the final three months of 2025, a far cry from the $1.29bn profit it made in the same period a year before. For the full year, diluted EPS was $4.45, down from $9.48 in 2024.

Full-year 2025 revenue came to $7.18bn, up from $6.56bn in 2024, supported by product performance and diversification efforts.

Fourth-quarter transaction revenue totaled $983mn, roughly meeting estimates of $998mn, reflecting retail trading volume of $733mn and institutional volume of $185mn. Subscription and services revenue, which includes staking, custody and stablecoin-related income, reached $727mn.

Looking ahead, the company expects to earn between $550mn and $630mn in subscription and services revenue in Q1 2026, adding that around $420mn had been generated between 1 Jan and 10 Feb.

In its shareholder letter, the company said crypto “is cyclical” and that it is “never as good, or as bad as it seems,” arguing that while asset prices remain volatile, technological progress and product adoption continue beneath the surface. 

Shares dipped as much as 4.9% from $140.95 to $134.03 as the earnings were disclosed, before subsequently spiking as high as almost $149 in the first hour of after-market trading. At the time of publication, shares were trading for around $146. Year-to-date, Coinbase has lost just over 40% of its share value.

Monness Crespi delivers brutal pre-earnings re-rating 

Monness Crespi had delivered a blunt assessment of Coinbase earlier on Thursday, double-downgrading the stock to Sell from Buy just hours before the report. Analyst Gus Gala dismissed the prevailing assumption of a steady recovery through 2026 as "foolish," noting that the market has underestimated the typical duration and depth of crypto bear cycles. Bracing for a period of protracted softness through the first half of the year, the firm has moved its 2026 and 2027 estimates well below the Wall Street consensus. Gala, eyeing a significantly lower entry point, has set a price target of $120/share (currently: $140). 

H.C. Wainwright trims outlook amid "non-ideal" setup 

H.C. Wainwright also took the secateurs to its valuation on Wednesday, cutting its price target to $350 from $425. Despite the near-term warnings, Wainwright remains a buyer of the dip, maintaining its Buy rating and arguing that the risk/reward profile "skews to the upside" at these levels. The firm identified the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, pivotal crypto market structure legislation, as the primary catalyst for a near-term reversal.