The CLARITY Act, a US bill aimed at creating a federal framework for crypto markets, has a roughly even chance of becoming law this year, but only if it gets a committee mark-up by mid-May, according to a new estimate from Galaxy Digital, as negotiations enter what the firm described as a decisive phase in Washington, DC.
CLARITY Act Needs Mark-Up by Mid-May or Chances of Passage Plummet: Galaxy
22 April 2026 - 21:26 CEST
By Ana Pereira
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn said in a note on 22 Apr that, assuming a Senate Banking Committee mark-up by mid-May, the odds of enactment in 2026 were "roughly 50-50," with risk driven by both a crowded legislative calendar and several unresolved policy disputes.
"The uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the number of unresolved questions that must be settled, in sequence, under severe time pressure," Thorn wrote.
Senate path narrows
The bill cleared the House of Representatives in July 2025 with bipartisan support. It still has to move through the Senate Banking Committee, secure 60 votes on the Senate floor, be reconciled with a separate Agriculture Committee version, then aligned with the House bill before reaching President Donald Trump's desk.
Thorn described that process as a race against a shrinking timetable. "Each of these steps requires time on a dwindling legislative calendar," he wrote.
Galaxy said a Banking Committee markup in early May would keep the bill on a workable path. A delay beyond mid-May, however, would weaken the chances of having a framework for digital assets this year.
"If the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2026 drops sharply," Thorn wrote.
Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican involved in negotiations, said this week the committee should wait until May before scheduling markup, according to Punchbowl News.
Several issues unresolved
While stablecoin rewards language has drawn the most attention, Thorn said several other matters remain unsettled.
They include decentralized finance provisions, legal protections for non-custodial software developers, ethics rules related to government officials' crypto holdings, SEC authority over tokenized securities and the broader task of assembling a 60-vote coalition.
"Any one of these could delay the process by days or weeks that the calendar cannot spare," he wrote.
Market watches May
The sentiment is even more negative on prediction market Polymarket, which currently prices the bill's passage at 39%, indicating fading expectations that the legislation will clear both chambers of Congress this year.
"If CLARITY clears the Banking Committee with a comfortable bipartisan margin, that will be a strong signal that the remaining steps can be completed," Thorn wrote. "If it advances on a party-line or near-party-line vote, the path to 60 on the floor becomes significantly harder."
