Bitcoin miners are back under pressure. The hash-ribbon signal, a widely used proxy for miner capitulation, has turned active again, suggesting parts of the mining sector are being forced to shut down machines, reduce exposure,or exit the market altogether. At first glance, that sounds bearish. Miner capitulation is usually associated with weak profitability, falling hash rate momentum and distressed operators. But the current setup is more nuanced than a simple "miners are selling" story.
Bitcoin Miners Are Capitulating, but That Doesn't Mean They're Dumping
25 June 2026 - 12:30 CEST
Compared with February 2026, the latest miner stress does not look uniformly worse. Bitcoin is weaker, and profitability proxies remain compressed, but the hash-ribbon signal is less severe than it was earlier this year. The bigger question is whether miner stress is translating into actual selling pressure. On that front, the data are mixed: direct miner flows look relatively contained, while one-hop miner-linked wallets, downstream addresses connected to miner activity that may capture distribution not visible in direct exchange flows, suggest distribution is still happening further downstream.
Hash ribbons show stress, not a completed reset
The hash-ribbon signal is currently flashing miner capitulation. In practice, this means hash-rate weakness has become persistent enough to trigger a miner-capitulation regime, implying weaker miners may be switching off machines or leaving the market. That matters because miners are structurally exposed sellers. They earn revenue in BTC but pay costs in fiat, including energy, hosting, equipment and debt service. When BTC falls and network competition remains high, margins compress. In those periods, the weakest miners can become sellers of last resort.
Chart
(Source: Coinmetrics)
But the current signal is not as severe as February, when viewed through the actual hash-rate data. The hash rate is still about 3% below the February benchmark, confirming that miners are under pressure: fewer machines are contributing to the network than when Bitcoin was last trading near similar levels.
The more important point, however, is the direction of travel. The decline in hash rate appears to be losing momentum. In February, network participation was deteriorating more persistently, with miner capitulation stretching across most of the month. Today, the hash rate remains depressed, but the pace of deterioration has slowed. That suggests the mining sector is still strained, but the adjustment is no longer intensifying at the same rate.
The constructive signal would be hash rate stabilizing, miner-linked flows turning positive and the capitulation signal switching off. That hasn't happened yet, and the reset can't be called complete while capitulation remains active. But the data don't show a fresh breakdown in network participation. Instead, they point to a sector that is weaker than in February on absolute hash rate, but where the deterioration appears less intense than during the deeper phase of miner stress.
Direct miner flows aren't flashing forced selling
The direct flow data are less bearish than the hash-ribbon signal. Miner-to-exchange transfers are running well below February levels. In February, miners sent an average of 19.7 BTC per day to exchanges. Over the latest 30-day window, that figure is closer to 9.1 BTC per day, down more than 50%.
Broader miner outflows also look contained. Miners sent around 445 BTC per day over the latest 30 days, below February's average of 477 BTC per day. Miner net flows remain positive, at about 20.6 BTC per day over the latest 30 days, compared with 12.9 BTC per day in February.
That weakens the argument that miners are directly dumping coins on exchanges. In a more disorderly miner-selling episode, we would expect exchange transfers to rise, miner outflows to accelerate and miner balances to deteriorate. The data do not show that. Direct miner wallets look stressed by the profitability backdrop, but not panicked in their exchange-facing behaviour. The caveat is that direct exchange flows are not the full selling channel. Miners can sell through OTC desks, custodians, treasury managers, counterparties or intermediary wallets. That is why one-hop miner-linked addresses are important.
One-hop wallets show where pressure may be hiding
The weaker signal comes from one-hop miner-linked wallets. Here, the comparison with February is less reassuring. In February, one-hop miner-linked wallets had net flows of 57 BTC per day. Over the latest 30-day window, that has flipped to around minus 89 BTC per day. In aggregate, one-hop wallets have seen net outflows of 2,671 BTC over the latest 30 days, compared with positive inflows of about 1,603 BTC during February. That suggests miner-linked distribution hasn't disappeared. It may simply be moving through less visible channels. One-hop supply is also lower than in February, indicating downstream miner-linked balances have continued to drain.
(Source: Coinmetrics)
There is one constructive detail: the latest seven-day one-hop net flow has turned positive. But one week is not enough to offset the weaker 30-day and 90-day trend. For the miner backdrop to look genuinely healthier, that improvement needs to persist.
Conclusion
Miner capitulation is still active, and the reset isn't complete. But the data don't show a fresh breakdown in network participation. Instead, they point to a sector that is weaker than in February on absolute hash rate, where the deterioration appears less intense than during the deeper phase of miner stress. The constructive signal would be hash rate stabilizing, miner-linked flows turning positive and the capitulation signal switching off. The seven-day improvement in one-hop flows is a start, but the 30-day trend needs to confirm it.
