Bitcoin could be worth half the market capitalization of gold by the coin’s next halving in 2028, according to a post on X by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at ETF issuer VanEck, on Tuesday.
With gold at fresh record highs near $3,977 per ounce, the metal’s total stock is valued at around $26 trillion — nearly ten times Bitcoin’s. “At today’s record gold price, that implies an equivalent value of $644,000 per BTC,” Sigel said. On that basis, Bitcoin would need to rise roughly fivefold from $124,000 as of 07:00 UTC.
Sigel argues that “roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewellery demand,” adding that surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets “increasingly prefer Bitcoin for that role.”
So far this year, gold has climbed more than 50 per cent, while Bitcoin is up about 33 per cent. Since the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, those funds have attracted substantial net inflows.
