‘Uptober’ Strikes Again! Bitcoin Tops $126,000 in New All-Time High

The original cryptocurrency surpassed $125,500 on Sunday, ensuring a unanimous declaration of a new all-time high. It climbed again on Monday in the European evening, reaching more than $126,000 to shatter the previous day's record.

A phenomenal month

“Uptober” is a comical, meme-style label highlighting that Bitcoin has posted gains in nine of the last 10 Octobers. 

The phenomenon is far from scientific. It would imply that analysis of macroeconomics and the US government shutdown this past week can be overridden by the simple fact that the ninth month has given way to the tenth. 

It ignores the complexities around how the US Federal Reserve is managing monetary policy while its independence is under attack from the White House. It even casts aside the knife-edge geopolitical tensions stemming from conflict in the Middle East, Russian aggression and concerns over how the US President would handle a face-to-face meeting with his Chinese counterpart in about four weeks' time.

Shutdown confusion

However, it does cut through a confused public narrative around whether the shutdown may be supporting a rush for safe-haven assets such as gold or prompting a “risk” rally into equities – both arguments have permeated through the mainstream financial media in recent days. Either way, Bitcoin is advancing.

The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment, increased from 42 to 59 over the first four days of the month on Saturday shortly before traders pushed Bitcoin to a new peak. The gauge has swung as high as 88, representing “extreme greed” and as low as 15, showing “extreme fear” in the past 12 months.

Crypto markets have received significant support from institutional investors, including a net inflow of more than $3.2 billion to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the week through 3 Oct, according to data from Coinglass. Perhaps those investors feel the shutdown of the federal government in the world’s largest economy may further encourage the Fed to continue its new rate-cutting path to help stimulate the economy? Or, more straightforwardly, they have been following the annual “Uptober” craze.

Altcoin revival

Bitcoin isn’t the only beneficiary. Ether (ETH) has advanced 13 percent this month, XRP 6 percent and Solana (SOL) 13 percent, reviving a stellar year for digital assets. 

The crypto market is up more than 30 percent since December amid advocacy by the US President, new regulatory frameworks legitimizing owning and trading digital assets and growing demand from institutional investors and corporate vehicles. One analyst, Geoff Kendrick of the bank Standard Chartered, has predicted that Bitcoin may reach $135,000 within 1-2 weeks. "Uptober" still has 26 days to go...