Prediction Markets Polymarket, Kalshi Eye Multi-Billion Valuations

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket is seeking to raise capital at a valuation between $12bn and $15bn, up from $9bn earlier this month and just $1bn in June. Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange, is reportedly fielding investor offers valuing it between $10bn and $12bn, only weeks after securing $300mn at a $5bn valuation.

Funding surge for prediction-market leaders

Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to trade binary outcomes on politics, markets, and culture. 

The company has added bitcoin deposits, cross-chain settlement, and new index products while preparing for a regulated U.S. relaunch after halting domestic operations in 2022. It has also agreed to serve as DraftKings’ clearinghouse should the sportsbook move into prediction products through its Railbird acquisition.

Kalshi, founded in 2018, operates under CFTC oversight and has expanded rapidly since winning a court ruling that allowed election markets. Trading volume is reportedly running above $50bn on an annualised basis, spanning sports, finance and macroeconomic events. 

TradFi begins to take notice

Institutional interest has accelerated alongside these valuations. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has agreed to invest up to $2bn in Polymarket at a $9nb valuation. 

The deal marks one of the first significant commitments by a global exchange operator to event-based trading, and underlines the growing crossover between TradFi and decentralized prediction infrastructure.

Sports leagues open the door

This week, the National Hockey League (NHL) announced multi-year partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi, naming them official prediction market partners. 

The agreements grant access to proprietary NHL data, marks, and branding across broadcasts and digital platforms, making the NHL the first major US sports league to publicly support event-trading platforms.

Traditional sportsbooks have responded quickly. DraftKings announced on Tuesday that it had acquired Railbird, a CFTC-licensed prediction exchange, and plans to launch DraftKings Predictions, a mobile app for trading real-world outcomes. FanDuel has partnered with CME Group to explore similar products.

Regulators weigh next steps

The rapid convergence of crypto, betting and financial markets is drawing closer scrutiny from Washington. Federal regulators, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), are working on a new crypto market-structure bill expected by year-end. 

The outcome will determine whether prediction markets evolve into a recognised financial category or remain confined to the margins of regulated trading.