Jefferies Strategist Abandons Bitcoin Over Quantum Computing Risks

In his latest GREED & Fear newsletter, Wood swapped a 10% Bitcoin allocation for a split position of 5% in physical gold and 5% in gold-mining stocks. The decision to walk away from the asset on 16 Jan was not driven by price action, but by a conviction that Bitcoin is failing the "forever test" required for long-term pension allocations.

Wood’s exit is a clinical rejection of the digital store of value thesis. Since first allocating to Bitcoin on 17 Dec 2020 at a price of $22,779 and adding more on 4 Nov 2021 at $61,365, the strategist has realized a cumulative 325% gain. Over that same five-year window, physical gold rose by a more modest 145%. Despite this outperformance, Wood argues that the arrival of quantum computing represents a terminal risk that physical bullion simply does not share. According to Bloomberg, the store of value concept is on less solid foundation from the standpoint of a long-term pension portfolio.

Failure of digital forever test

For a seasoned macro strategist, a store of value is only as good as its projected lifespan. Wood is betting that physical gold’s 5,000-year track record is superior to a digital asset that could be mathematically compromised within a decade. He cited a May 2025 report from Chaincode by Dr. Anthony Milton and Dr. Clara Shikhelman, which warned that cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) could arrive within the next ten years. Such machines would theoretically be capable of reverse engineering private keys from public ones, a process that is currently impossible for traditional supercomputers.

The Chaincode research suggests that approximately 6.26mn BTC ($650bn) is currently sitting in vulnerable address types. This includes legacy "Satoshi-era" funds and institutional holdings where public keys have been exposed through address reuse. While the Bitcoin community is debating whether to "burn" these vulnerable coins or attempt a network-wide migration to post-quantum signatures, Wood views the mere necessity of such an upgrade as an existential flaw. For a portfolio designed to last generations, a "digital gold" that requires a mid-flight engine swap is a liability.

Industry divided on quantum threat

Wood’s reversal has exposed a growing rift between institutional allocators and crypto-native bulls. While Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, argued on X in December 2025 that quantum computing will simply "harden" the network through upgrades, others are less optimistic. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin warned in August 2025 of a 20% chance that CRQCs could emerge before 2030, according to Yahoo Finance.

By rotating back into physical gold, Wood is choosing the certainty of history over the volatility of technological evolution. Gold mining production increases the supply by roughly 1.8% annually, a predictable dilution compared to the potential for a quantum breakthrough to render a digital balance sheet worthless overnight. For the macro strategist, the trade is clear: he is sacrificing the potential for another 300% gain in exchange for the 5,000-year guarantee that his assets will still be there when the cryptography of the 2020s is a relic of the past.