Bitcoin's rebound from the low-$60,000 range has sparked a fresh debate over whether the market has finally found its bottom as some of the industry's biggest research teams remain divided.
Crypto trading firm Wintermute says investors should remain cautious because the recent bounce appears to be driven more by improving market sentiment than by signs of a lasting recovery. For digital asset manager NYDIG, the market is showing signs of a bottom, though it is not ready to declare one. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, believes the worst of the sell-off is already over and that Bitcoin's low is behind it.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $65,851 on 16 Jun, up nearly 8% over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko data. But the world's largest cryptocurrency remains down 25% this year and about 39% from a year ago, leaving investors divided over whether the recent recovery marks the start of a new rally or is just a temporary uptick.
Wintermute: Watch the flows
Wintermute offered one of the most cautious outlooks in a market update published on 15 Jun. The firm said Bitcoin's recovery from the low-$60,000 range to around $65,000 was helped by easing concerns over inflation and lower geopolitical tensions following reports of a US-Iran peace agreement.
However, the firm argued that the signals it watches most closely have yet to improve. "The one thing to watch is flows, not price, not headlines," the Wintermute report read. The report said more money needs to return to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), stablecoins and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies before the worst can be declared over.
Wintermute noted that Bitcoin ETFs had recently recorded their longest streak of outflows since launch, stablecoin flows had been weakening and DATs' assets under management had fallen to about $140bn from $220bn.
Between 15 May and 15 Jun, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows in 15 of 17 trading sessions, interrupted by just two days of inflows. Over the same period, net assets in crypto ETFs fell from about $104.3bn to $83.3bn, according to data from SoSoValue. Until those trends begin to reverse, Wintermute said Bitcoin could still revisit the $50,000 range.
NYDIG: The jury is still out
Digital asset manager NYDIG said the recent sell-off looks similar to previous downturns in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has fallen around 53% from its peak of around $126,000 in October 2025, while ETF demand has weakened and corporate buying has slowed.
The firm also pointed out that past Bitcoin declines have often been deeper, with peak-to-trough losses of 75% to 85%. However, unlike previous market bottoms, the industry has not experienced the kind of panic and forced selling that has typically signalled the worst is over.
NYDIG also said Bitcoin's growing institutional investors could make this cycle different from those that came before. The rise of spot ETFs, corporate treasury buyers and sovereign holders could also help limit how far prices end up falling.
For now, the firm said there is still a risk of further downside, while also stopping short of ruling out that BTC may be near - or has already reached - a bottom.
Standard Chartered: Bottom is here
Standard Chartered took the most bullish view of the three. Earlier this year, the bank warned that BTC could fall to around $50,000 before recovering. But Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, now believes the worst of the sell-off is over and that Bitcoin likely found its bottom at around $59,000 in early June.
Kendrick pointed to several recent developments to support his viewpoint: Strategy's purchase of 1,587 BTC, a return to positive spot Bitcoin ETF flows and falling oil prices.
"Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring," Kendrick wrote. The bank said it continues to expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. "When we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted," Kendrick wrote.
