Bitcoin (BTC) declined 1.12% on 22 June, the day the U.S. bombed nuclear facilities in Iran, despite experiencing intra-day volatility exceeding 4.99%. The event reignited debates over Bitcoin’s role during geopolitical crises, leaving traders no wiser on how to prepare themselves for the next shock.
US Iran Attack Highlights Bitcoin's Inconsistent Reaction to Geopolitical Shocks
23 June 2025 - 18:02 CEST
Proponents of Bitcoin often describe it as “digital gold,” positioning it as a hedge against inflation and global instability. However, many investors highlight its historical correlation with technology stocks, suggesting its behaviour is more “risk-on” than “safe haven”.
A closer look at Bitcoin's performance in the months following major geopolitical events over the past decade reveals a mixed picture, as the table below shows. While the average 90-day return post-event stands at +11%, individual outcomes vary widely, reflecting high volatility and a lack of consistent directional movement.
Although the average and median 90-day returns are positive, the path to those gains is highly volatile and inconsistent across events. For every post-event surge like the 57% gain following the Capitol riots, there is a counterexample, such as the -42% drop after the Suez Canal blockage.
As geopolitical tensions rise again, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains uncertain. The data suggest no clear pattern linking such events to consistent upside or downside performance.
