Options Traders Are Positioning for a Big Move in Crypto by Year-End

According to data from Deribit, the derivatives exchange being acquired by Coinbase, traders are increasingly positioning for upside volatility in both Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC), particularly into the September and December 2025 expiries.  

A short analysis of Derebit data shows that open interest and notional value are skewed toward calls – contracts that give the holder the right to acquire an asset at a pre-agreed “strike price” by a specific expiry date – signaling that investors see room for prices to increase significantly by year-end. 

Key takeaways: 

• ETH’s put/call ratio stands at 43%, and just 23% for December contracts, meaning that for every 100 ETH call options held, only 23 are puts — a clear sign of bullish sentiment. In simple terms: more traders are betting on ETH going up than down, especially in December.
• The December ETH options contract shows peak call open interest at the $6,000 strike, with over 58,000 calls and $164 million notional value, highlighting expectations of a substantial move upward.
• BTC’s September contract sees peak open interest at the $140,000 strike, while December peaks at $170,000, reflecting growing market conviction around continued upside into Q4.
• With over $1.5 billion (ETH) and $6.6 billion (BTC) notional value for September, and $0.9 billion (ETH) and $3.8 billion (BTC) for December, the 26 September and 26 December expirations emerge as key dates for options expiry. 

What's next?

Investors will track the Put/Call ratio to gauge the strength of the current trend. A falling ratio reinforces bullish conviction, while a rising ratio may signal increasing caution or hedging. Additionally, growing open interest at higher strike prices reflects investor confidence in higher prices in the second half of the year., whereas a shift in open interest to lower strikes could suggest a potential trend reversal or increased downside protection.